There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one большой анальный секс A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic. It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.” Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition. Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life. The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world. All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so. For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November. It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Why so many ghosts? No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data. The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center. The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it. Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time. The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

I’m wondering why the masses thinks machine learning is the ultimate breakthrough, I figure it just doesn’t make any sense to me. Why would people want non-people everywhere? It just kinda goes in opposition to biology, yk? Not to even start on how trash all the companies that create these robotic systems and units are,why would someone want standard unions, Google, or any other digital empire in their household?

Проверка пропусков на МКАД: как найти и проверить пропуск для грузовиков и автомобилей оформление пропуска на мкад для грузовых машин Если вам нужно проверить пропуск на МКАД, важно знать, что процесс может быть достаточно простым, если следовать установленным правилам и использовать правильные способы проверки. В современных условиях большинство предприятий и водителей используют онлайн-сервисы для проверки пропуска на МКАД по номеру машины или по номеру автомобиля, что значительно ускоряет процесс и позволяет получить необходимую информацию мгновенно. Почему важно проверять пропуск в Москве для грузовиков Особенно актуально это для владельцев грузовых транспортных средств, поскольку пропуск в Москву для грузовиков проверить или проверить пропуск в Москву для грузовиков по номеру автомобиля на портале государственных услуг или через специализированные системы. Это помогает избежать задержек и штрафных санкций при проезде по МКАД и въезде в столичный регион. Как проверить пропуск на МКАД по номеру автомобиля Для проверки пропуска на МКД по номеру машины существует несколько простых способов: Обратиться к онлайн-сервисам, предоставляющим информацию по базе данных ГИБДД. Использовать официальный сайт МВД или порталы городских властей Москвы. Ввести номер автомобиля в специальную форму для проверки пропуска на МКАД и получить актуальную информацию о статусе пропуска. Проверка пропуска в Москве для грузовиков Чтобы проверить пропуск в Москве для грузовиков по номеру автомобиля, достаточно воспользоваться онлайн-порталами или приложениями, предоставляющими услуги по проверке пропусков. Такой подход помогает оперативно убедиться, есть ли у вашего грузового транспорта действующий пропуск и всё ли в порядке для въезда в город. Как проверить пропуск на МКАД по номеру машины Если необходимо проверить пропуск на МКД по номеру автомобиля, рекомендуется: Перейти на официальный сайт или специализированный сервис. Ввести актуальный номер автомобиля. Получить подтверждение или информацию о необходимости оформления нового пропуска. Что делать при отсутствии пропуска или его истечении Если пропуск проверить и выяснилось, что он отсутствует или истёк срок действия, необходимо оформить новый или продлить существующий. В большинстве случаев это делается через онлайн-сервисы, что значительно ускоряет процесс и позволяет избежать возможных штрафов.

Timezone:GMT-5+,Everyday but time is not fixed   Character Slot:        -Character Data-       Name: Ryuji Hatake   Clan: Hatake       Gender: Male   Date of Birth:    Age:    Birthplace: Konoha       Village: Konoha       -Appearance-       Hair: White hair   Eyes: Blue eyes   Height: 5 feet 8 inches   Weight: 57 kilograms   Skin Tone:light   Physical Description:Well-built sturdy physique,piercing complexion,hawk like face,Athletic body with especially strong arms and legs,have a slash mark upon forehead.   Clothing: Black Ninja Jeans and Sleeveless Jacket containing the holsters for kunai and shuriken,Wears a mask,       -Persona-    Pervert,Prideful,Rebellious(Jiraiya copy cat)       Ideals:He possess simple midset of Living his life fullest as his ideal character Jiraiya once said that the Ninja's life is not determined by how he lives but how he dies.   Bonds:No particular bond but just watching something distroy leaves a bad taste.Although the Ramen shop and magazines are also there.But the real and main reason is his Home.   Flaws: Very bad at Genjutsu       Personality: The character has a distinguished prideful,pervy and rebellious personality.Although can become ruthless when necessary. Devicing a plan before going in for a fight is usual approach.If something hurts him badly like killing someone just because it is fun beware for this character will enjoy the same fun but with you.       -Relationships-   Considers everyone rival,teacher,friends.he is an orphan so no parents.Considers no one enemy but if he did considered someone enemy that means he is going to hack him down if he could.   -History-   The character is a great fan of Jiraiya and have read all of his novels.He is at this stage of this life because of the Teachings of Jiraiya,how he fought his own student ruthlessly when he needed to for what he loved.       Spent most of his life till now playing,helping out villagers,Practising Techniques and the best part flirting with girls but never touched them due to policy of respect for women except of 3 times when he killed 3 kunoichi from behind at one point when they were running out of village with some important scroll.After that mission,he was considered to be made a Gennin and Graduates from the academy.his sensei and squad is yet to determine which will be given by Academy

Timezone:GMT-5+,Everyday but time is not fixed   Character Slot:        -Character Data-       Name: Ryuji Hatake   Clan: Hatake       Gender: Male   Date of Birth:    Age:    Birthplace: Konoha       Village: Konoha       -Appearance-       Hair: White hair   Eyes: Blue eyes   Height: 5 feet 8 inches   Weight: 57 kilograms   Skin Tone:light   Physical Description:Well-built sturdy physique,piercing complexion,hawk like face,Athletic body with especially strong arms and legs,have a slash mark upon forehead.   Clothing: Black Ninja Jeans and Sleeveless Jacket containing the holsters for kunai and shuriken,Wears a mask,       -Persona-    Pervert,Prideful,Rebellious(Jiraiya copy cat)       Ideals:He possess simple midset of Living his life fullest as his ideal character Jiraiya once said that the Ninja's life is not determined by how he lives but how he dies.   Bonds:No particular bond but just watching something distroy leaves a bad taste.Although the Ramen shop and magazines are also there.But the real and main reason is his Home.   Flaws: Very bad at Genjutsu       Personality: The character has a distinguished prideful,pervy and rebellious personality.Although can become ruthless when necessary. Devicing a plan before going in for a fight is usual approach.If something hurts him badly like killing someone just because it is fun beware for this character will enjoy the same fun but with you.       -Relationships-   Considers everyone rival,teacher,friends.he is an orphan so no parents.Considers no one enemy but if he did considered someone enemy that means he is going to hack him down if he could.   -History-   The character is a great fan of Jiraiya and have read all of his novels.He is at this stage of this life because of the Teachings of Jiraiya,how he fought his own student ruthlessly when he needed to for what he loved.       Spent most of his life till now playing,helping out villagers,Practising Techniques and the best part flirting with girls but never touched them due to policy of respect for women except of 3 times when he killed 3 kunoichi from behind at one point when they were running out of village with some important scroll.After that mission,he was considered to be made a Gennin and Graduates from the academy.his sensei and squad is yet to determine which will be given by Academy